Eagles Lose....But Win

Yeah there is no column for moral victories in the NFL standings. And yes, the Eagles are now globbed together with the 4skins, Vikings, Bears, Cardinals and Saints at 5-6, staring up at Detroit and NY for the two NFC wild-card spots.

Yet, I cannot help but get the feeling that the Eagles can use this game as a springboard. The Cards lost a brutal OT game...the Lions are practically in a free-fall; the Saints inconsistent.....the Vikings romped over the Giants today and the Bears got a huge lift with an unreal OT-win at Soldier Field against the Broncos...Washington? they dominated the second-half statistically against the Buccaneers, but 6 turnovers??? hoo-boy....I don't fear the 'Skins...and the Giants? how do lay a stinker like they just laid at home against the Viking in late November? Could another late-season collapse be looming? One can only hope.

As for the Eagles....if they continue to play like they did against the Patriots....they will win out, just like last year, and finish 10-6. The only problem with that is that it won't be enough to win the NFC East, because the 'Boys have the East locked up.

Going On the Record About the NFC

Well my trials and tribulations with my primary PC have not ceased. Are they worse? Perhaps not, but the fucker isn't fixed yet, and it crunched my entire Sunday.

Its just a few hours before Sunday's 1pm Kickoff (that 2am Monday morning here in Japan), so I'll make this brief.

Predicted finish by Division:

NFC North: No team is strong enough to challenge the Bears
1. Chicago Bears - even with sexy-Rexy daring to be mediocre at QB, a helluva defense/special teams will keep the Bears in every game. The question week-in, week-out question: Will the Bears O show up and result rock the opponent or will Bad Rex emerge from the shadows and do his best to F things up.
2. Green Bay Packers - dunno why, perhaps it was little run last year, but if any semblance of a running game appears for the Packers, they should be able to beat out the Vikes and Lions for second best
3. Detroit Lions - so many weapons on Offense, the biggest question: will they be able to out-score their opponents week-to-week. Cause if not, that D is porous
4. Minnesota Vikings - Stalwart Run D, questions everywhere else. Still Adrian Peterson could/should establish himself as the division's Best RB. The problem: who is their QB?

NFC East: Two team race
1. Philadelphia Eagles - dees my boys! I will always pick the Eagles to win. ALWAYS.
2. Dallas Cowboys - Should field a strong team and appear to be Philly's primary competition for the division. Have a couple of players nicked-up early (CB Newman, WR Glenn) so hopefully they get to a nice plodding, slow start
3. Washington Redskins - Ok, for once they didn't go whole hog and splurge like addicts breaking into a pharmacy during free agency (they did make some hefty signing) and an end-of-training-camp youth movement should gives the Redskins some legs during the season. Is Jason Campbell for real? Skins fans better hope so, and this year should tell us a lot. I still see the 4skins as a year or two away though
4. NY Giants - Jeff Lurie, Dan Snyder and Jerry Jones ought to be sending Tiki Barber Halloween baskets, Thanksgiving turduckens and a shit-load of good wishes for Christmas because I have never seen a dude be a big a distraction to team after he left than Tiki...uh, well maybe MEO. The Giants just don't look like a good ballclub right now

NFC South: Talk about yer distractions
1. New Orleans Saints - yeah they got smashed on opening night. But seriously, who is going to challenge N.O.? Tampa? Carolina? It would take a major fall to retreat back to those levels.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Garcia is just what Gruden needs. If the Caddy doesn't have a flat (like last year) then the Buccaneers should field a pretty competitive team.
3. Carolina Panthers - don't trust Delhomme, have a feeling we'll be seeing David Carr before too long
4. Atlanta Falcons - injuries, new coach and Michael Vick oh my! Did I mention that Joey Harrington in now "the man" in the A-T-L.....we'll see how that goes over

NFC West: Toughest division to pick, by far, any of the 4 teams seems like they could put together a good season and win it.
1. Seattle Seahawks - I picked against the Seahawks last year and paid for it. I don't see them as that strong, but guess what, until someone proves otherwise - they own the division. I am not picking against Hasselbeck and Alexander or their home field advantage again
2. St. Louis Rams - Jackson, Bulger, Holt, Bruce, Bennett, McMichael. Oodles of weapons to power the O, if the D makes any strides the Rams will challenge Seattle
3. San Francisco 49ers - they just seems poised to put together a good year - don't they?
4. Arizona Cardinals - a chic darkhorse pick in recent years. I still don't trust them

ProBowl Ruminations

As I spend my Sunday morning getting my final taste of football for the season (and a little taste of home), these quick thoughts struck me:

- Laughed out loud when after RB Larry Johnson was obliterated in the backfield Dan Dierdorf asked "was he tackled? or absorbed?"

- 1st quarter and Dan Dierdorf talks about how the guys in the trenches play all out...snap...and all 9 lineman stand straight up and mosey around while the NFC runs a pass play....hee hee

- Bulger drops the ball w/o being touched?? C'mon dude...don't give it away....

- Hitting does exist in the ProBowl (I still remember some of Dawkins big hits from a few years ago)

- Want to take bets on the most replayed highlight from today's game...little doubt in my mind; AFC Punter Brian Moorman just got annihilated by Washington's Sean Taylor on a fake punt...
BTW - CBS carried the call in Japanese as well...after you hear the NHK announcers go "OOOO" you know big hits translate to any language...

- Ok all you Romosexuals...Dallas QB Tony Romo has been just this side of pathetic...and what the fuck did he do to deserve playing the entire second half? Real coaching genius that Sean Payton...Romo couldn't even engineer a scoring drive after Chicago's great return man Devin Hester set up the NFC inside the 25! They the NFC gets the ball at the 11 on a fumble and the only reason they score is because of Steven Jackson's never-say-die attitude....and FINALLY, a decent pass by TR and Boldin scores on a nifty shift and scoot down the sideline...Cool...

- Game ends, AFC wins 31-28...what a cheesy way to end the game on a gimme FG after a Pass Interference penalty on the NFC...dang...had a chance for real drama...

Does Romo Belong in the ProBowl?

This has nothing to do with the analysis, I just love the photo and want it at the top of my page, the BiPolar Express, courtesy ProFootballTalk.com:

I want to state up front that I believe Dallas QB Tony Romo's selection to the ProBowl is premature. That said, I wanted to repost this analysis that I submitted to the Philly.com message boards. I'll edit it some more, but here it is:

After giving the ProBowl selections some thoughts, I believe that the players who were selected to represent the NFC in the ProBowl, (the Saints' Drew Brees, the Rams' Marc Bulger and the Cowboy's Tony Romo) are probably the right three. I believe the most controversial selection is Romo (certainly caused a stir in all the fine, cowboy-hating fans in Philly). I also think Romo being a Pro-Bowler is a product of injuries to a couple of the NFC's top-tier QBs (the Eagles' Donovan McNabb and Seahawks' Matt Hasselbeck) and subpar seasons by other more established QBs (witness Eli Manning's average season instead of what should have been a "break out" 3rd year, and the Panther's Jake Delhomme constantly heave-ho'ing gift INTs to the opposition - Jake regressed and Eli failed to progress).

ProBowl berths do NOT account for a players' entire body of work during said year. Besides being a popularity contest and influence considerably by past performance (some dudes make it on reputation alone), what they really seem to require is sustained excellence and adequate attention from early Oct (when voting begins) to late November (when most folks will have had enough exposure to media, highlights, etc to have an impression made [good or bad]). If a player has a good start to the season in September (getting a jump on the stat monster, cause that impacts the online voters), really makes a lot of plays (gets on Sportscenter, gets noticed) and then backs it up with solid to stellar performances in the majority of games in Oct/Nov (keeps the stats machine rollin') then said player does himself an undeniable service....

An example: The Eagles own Lito Sheppard (imho, a very deserving nod this year after a tough injured start). Lito got a HUGE BOOST with his play at the right time. After missing three games early (no jump for the INT stat) he makes the biggest play in the biggest game of the early season: National TV, the return of MEO to Philly. 4 o'clock start vs the Cowboys and the SIGNATURE replay of the game is Lito's game-sealing 101 yd INT Return for a TD, (and we all love (at least I do) hearing Chris Berman on Sportscenter that night singing, Lee-too, one more for the ROW-A-OD). Then as the voting hits its peak, Lito does it AGAIN, sealing the Carolina win with a huge INT on Monday Night Football. I'm not saying his play the rest of the way didn't matter, he's had a fantastic season, but I tell you what, the attention he got from those two plays really helped propel him to Hawaii .

Getting back to question surrounding Tony Romo: he got inserted into the starting line-up at JUST the right time...voting began in early Oct and in marches Tony and what happens: he resurrects the Cowboys season. He's got media all over him as he plays the highest profile position on the highest profile team in the NFL....but more than that, he PERFORMS....he had good games, the Cowboys WON, and commentators/pundits/fans, everyone talking about his play...how can that hurt? (unless its like Grossman's play around the same time)....

Finally, let us take a look at Romo's competition in the NFC:
NFC East: - Donovan McNabb - after a torrid start, 5 seemed like surefire lock for the ProBowl until he got hurt. There is no doubt in my mind that voters would've sent Donovan to Hawaii and not Romo if McNabb had stayed healthy.
- Jeff Garcia - odd to have two candidated from the same team but: ok a case MIGHT be made for Jeff...but you know what, he's played in even fewer games than Romo this year, so if I feel TR hasn't played enough games, I don't feel like I can make a credible, unbiased argument for Garcia (yes, I can make a biased argument for him, and maybe take into account his total resume, but the ProBowl should be about the current year, not his prior PB selections, I understand this often isn't the case, esp. with linemen, but whatcha gonna do?)
- Washington Redskins - Mark Brunell...you joking right? He gets pulled for Jason Campbell at the peak of the voting...Campbell, uh no, way too late, way too raw
- NY Giants Eli Manning- as previously mentioned, wittle Ewi is having an O.K. season, but he didn't take that big step forward that a lot of folks seemed to expect (hee hee). Plus it seems like every week he's had his own coach ripping him for doing something stupid, that's not the way to get votes.

NFC South: - The Succaneers - Simms/Gradkowski?- 'nuff said - no competition there
- Carolina Panthers - Jake Delhomme, as previously pointed out, he must have gone color blind in the offseason. His new nicknames should be "golden arches" because he served up more gimme INTs to opposing players this season that I can count.
- New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees, far and away the BEST QB in the NFC this year, maybe the NFL MVP. Proved all the doubters wrong and led the Saints into almost unexplored territory. Very deserving starter.
- Atlanta Falcons - Michael Vick - hmmm, seemed more interested in his rushing totals than the Falcons' win total. But as for my argument: He was up and down during that crucial period...remember those two games in Oct were he just lit it up? Had everyone talking about how he'd turned the page, etc.....follow that with a Pisarcik-like fumble for the next 4-5 weeks and the Falcons mid-season losing streak....his inexplicable regression and the team's subsequent swoon came at a VERY bad in the voting for him....

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith, NEXT....maybe in a few years his name might deserve consideration.
Arizona Cardinals - Matt Leinart, ditto.
Seattle Seahawks - Matt Hasselbeck, injuries right at the critical juncture sidelined him for too many games...he lagged both in the stats and exposure arenas, and his PB rep from last year wasn't enough....
St. Louis Rams - Marc Bulger - continued to put up big numbers and be one of the few bright spots for the under-achieving Rams...cannot argue with him being a back-up

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings - Brad Johnson, started good, but the Vikings swooned through the mid-season (hmm seems like a pattern in the NFC this year) and his play (unlike Bulger's) took a dive as well....
Green Bay Packers - Brett Favre, surprisingly one of the few folks who probably deserved at least some consideration for Romo's #3 spot. The Packers may have pretty bad this year, but it hasn't really been Favre's fault...he's been their only chance to win this year...Not nearly as bad as last year, but the team's subpar record probably did little to alter most folks perception that he is, if not washed up,then too far over the hill to deserve a trip to Hawaii.
Detroit Lions - Jon Kitna...he plays for Detroit, NEXT
Chicago Bears - Rex Grossman, started GREAT, they went through a putrid stretch of absolutely unbelievably horrid quarterbacking just when voters were really hitting the polls. If he would have played in Nov like he just did the past two weeks, and the media wasn't questioning him all month, as the QB of a 12-2 team he probably would've gotten WAY MORE votes...instead people (rightly) credit the Bears Defense with holding it together.....

So that's it....who IS more deserving than Romo???...two for sure, Bulger and Brees...I suppose argument could be made for Garcia, Favre, maybe Vick...but lets be real, Romo propelled the Cowboys to where they are right now: the Division Lead...and he did it by playing very well....I don't necessarily think its great that we gotta deal with 'Boys trolls crowing about their "Pro Bowl" QB, but its something we gotta live with...just like they did, when we got to gloat for seasons with McNabb while they dealt with putzes like Quincy Carter...

The Road Ahead

The remaining schedule for the Eagles is the toughest of the teams set to duke it out over the final two playoff spots in the NFC. The percentages (courtesy Philly.com) are (easiest to hardest):

Minnesota... .406

St. Louis... .453

Atlanta... .484

Carolina... .500

Dallas... .531

Eagles... .547

The Eagles must win-out at home and take some if not all of their NFC games, the ONLY affordable loss appears to be the game in Indy in a few weeks. Now I hear ya, 7-1 is a tall order for a 4-4 team...7-1 would allow them to challenge the Giants, who figure to reach double-digit wins this year despite a growing list of injuries to their defense.

A more sane figure has them going 5-3 or 6-2...hmmm 9-7 and make the playoffs? Not likely in this league, because that would almost guarantee the Eagles a loss to a team they can ill-afford to lose to (Carolina or Atlanta or Dallas). 10-6 appears (as it seem to every year) to be the magic number for making the playoffs without relying on tiebreakers or other teams helping ya out.

So how to the Eagles "overcome" this hurdle. Easy. The very cliche, but very true, one-game-at-a-time method. It all starts Sunday against Washington. They've had their week to recharge, they're practicing right now, execute on Sunday and start playing like the team we saw in late Aug, Sep and early Oct...you know fellas, the one that looked ready to chew up the league and spit out, the ones who came out fired up, putting up big leads...let us lament the defenses inability to get a shutout, or allowing a team to get within 10 points...instead of hoping that they'll make a game-saving play or force a three-and-out to give the O another chance to wake-the-hell-up.

Going "On the Record" - Micc's NFC Breakdown

Ok folks, guess it put up time, since I've been spending so much time talkin' football...

Here is how I see the NFC breaking down.

NFC East:
1. Philadelphia Eagles- pure homer pick, I bleed green, just deal with it. McNabb is back and looks like a man on mission...is he makes any sort of connection with Stallworth early on, watch out...
2. Dallas Cowboys - Parcells got himself a pretty good D, should be in games even if they have trouble keeping Bledsoe upright...the X-factor - how much damage can America's Hamstring (he who shall not be named) do?
3. NY Giants - Return plenty of offensive talent, but they were exposed as frauds in the playoffs last year...not terribly impressed by the defensive acquisitions, Madison is over-the-hill...X-factor - a team that utilizes a roving Arrington well will field a good D
4. Washington Redskins - they may have finished strong, but I think this is a case of too many chiefs and not enough Indians for the 'Skins, I mean how many associate/asst head coaches can you have...did the Skins O really need Al Saunders to change everything up? Factor in a washed-up QB and a banged up Portis, and there is reason to worry in D.C.

NFC North:
1. Chicago Bears - my wife would kill me if I picked against her team, but to be honest, the only reason I am going with "DA Bears" is that they don't have any true competition in this division...its theirs for the taking, if they don't its their own damn fault.
2. Minnesota Vikings - Childress is following the Andy Reid formula: first year, sign massive, nasty free-agent offensive lineman and instill a sense of order and tenacity into the club...what was Reid's record the first year...oh 5-11...Vikes are better than that, but they are not ready to vault into NFC contention
3. Detroit Lions - Rod Marinelli's tough guy act will wear this team out by mid-season, factor in a bunch of underachievers and the WORST front office management in the league, and I just don't see the Lions going very far. I like the Kitna pick-up....other than that.....
4. Green Bay Packers - If you thought last year was tough on Favre...another off-season of doing nothing to address O-line woes is going to equal just one this for the cheesehead faithful - more pain for the Hall of Fame gunslinger....

NFC South:
1. Carolina Panthers - John Fox is a proven winner and his players run through walls for him...Factor in a team that is returning all its playmakers and the Panthers should be tough again this year
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - the D is slipping after years waiting for the offense to catch-up with it...I like Simms, I think he's going to be a fine leader for the Bucs (even though I don't like the Bucs)...Note to Gruden: the season is 16 games long, don't grind the wheels off your Cadillac so quickly this year - no need to try and cram all his carries into the first half the season...
3. Atlanta Falcons - here goes - Vick is average, face it Falcons fans, he is not going to morph into an Elway or Brady or Manning...does he need to? To lead the Falcons to a championship he does...he is the epitome of a running QB...you know all that yap about the Falcons being the NFL's premier rushing team...its bull...Vick was 25% of their running game, he outrushed Duckett fer cryin' out loud....You think the team playing in Miami in February this year is going to have a QB with 2,400 yds, 15 TDs, 13 INTs and be the second leading rusher on the team (with 600 rushing yards)? Think again, quit fooling yourselves...
4. New Orleans Saints - gets a nod for being smart/lucky enough to snag Reggie Bush...y'all got yourself the real deal down there, have fun rubbing that in Tex-ass fans faces for years to come....just not this year....

NFC West:
1. St Louis Rams...Les Mouflons (Yes I read TMQ) are probably not the brightest pick in the world, but here's why - I refuse to pick against the Superbowl hangover/Madden curse double-whammy....I am playing the odds that somehow/some-way Seattle/Shaun Alexander will fall victim to this odd "Football Gods" punishment for coming so close and not winning. Oh why would I pick the Rams....hmmm....Scott Linehan likes to run the ball, and he's got a stud RB in Steven Jackson, plus he's got Bulger and Torry Holt....they better put up points cause overall I am not thrilled with the D, though Haslett should make them competitive...
2. Seattle Seahawks - ok ok, I cannot drop them down that far can I? Seattle returns much of its Superbowl Squad, but then again, so did the Eagles...the difference for the Sea-hags this year will be injuries, avoid them and a return engagement in Jan is a definite possibility because the NFC West is pretty weak as divisions go...
3. Arizona Cardinals - ah, why didn't I go with the Cards to supplant the soon-to-be-curse-ridden 'Hawks...because I don't trust them...I love the Leinart and E. James pick-ups...but I would like them a whole lot MORE if the Cardinals had an O-Line to protect/open up holes...Edge is going to miss Jeff Saturday and Tarik Glenn real quick come opening day when he's got to start dodging DTs as soon as takes the hand-off from Warner....there ain't no 1,500-yard rushers in the desert Edge...you will learn...
4. San Francisco 49ers - I don't know what to say about the Niners...Do they have anyone left on the team that anyone recognizes? I cannot name one starter on Offensive (the QB's name is Smith I believe, I want to say Aaron, but I know Aaron Rodgers is rotting behind Favre and I am not sure they are both named Aaron...I know I know it a Google-world, why expose your ignorance to the world, just go look it up...It illustrates my point...when your most recognizable name on your "O" is draft pick TE Vernon Davis....that a bad thing....oh yeah, a little birdie tells me that picked up Larry Allen, could be a good move....now if only the Niners had a running back...

These are my NFC Playoff Teams: Philly, Dallas, Chicago, Carolina, St. Louis and Seattle...that's an appropriate amount of turn-over, cause every year it seems like half the teams that may the dance in January weren't there the year before...I know alot of folks think two teams will come from the NFC South, but I dunno....a lot of will disagree with this but you know what, that the fun part....